1. What Is the BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey?
The BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey is the most comprehensive global source of information on the size and structure of over‑the‑counter (OTC) foreign exchange and interest rate derivatives markets. Conducted every three years since 1986 (for FX) and 1995 (for interest rate derivatives), it is coordinated by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) under the auspices of the Markets Committee and the Committee on the Global Financial System.
The survey aims to increase market transparency, help central banks monitor financial stability, and support the G20 Data Gaps Initiative. In 2025, the 14th edition covered turnover in FX spot, forwards, swaps, options, and other OTC derivatives, with data collected from 52 jurisdictions and more than 1,100 banks and dealers.
2. How the 2025 Survey Was Conducted
2.1 Methodology and Reporting
The 2025 survey followed the same methodology as 2022, with a continued focus on breaking out non‑market‑facing trades (e.g., back‑to‑back and compression trades). Reporting dealers provided data on a locational basis—i.e., by the location of the sales desk—and on an unconsolidated basis, including trades between related entities within the same group.
National central banks collected data from participating institutions using standardised reporting templates and guidelines, then submitted national aggregates to the BIS. The BIS then adjusted global figures for double‑counting in interdealer trades to produce the “net‑net” turnover figures.
2.2 Scope and Coverage
The survey captured turnover in:
- FX spot transactions
- FX outright forwards
- FX swaps
- Currency swaps
- FX options
- Other OTC FX derivatives
Data covered all business days in April 2025, with a separate survey collecting outstanding notional amounts as of end‑June 2025.
3. Key Findings: Global Forex Daily Turnover
The 2025 survey revealed that global OTC FX trading reached $9.6 trillion per day in April 2025 on a net‑net basis, a 28% increase from the $7.5 trillion recorded in April 2022.
📈 Instrument breakdown
- FX swaps: $4.0T (+5%) – share fell to 42%
- FX spot: +42% – share rose to 31%
- Outright forwards: +60% – share rose to 19%
- FX options: more than doubled
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2025
🌐 Currency dominance
- USD: 89.2% (up from 88.4%)
- EUR: 28.9% (down from 30.6%)
- JPY: 16.8% (virtually unchanged)
- GBP: 10.2% (down from 12.9%)
- CNY: 8.5% (up)
- CHF: 6.4% (up)
Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2025
Inter‑dealer trading accounted for 46% of global turnover, while trading with “other financial institutions” (hedge funds, pension funds, etc.) rose to 50% of the total, reaching $4.8 trillion—35% higher than in 2022.
4. Practical Use Cases for Traders & Institutions
4.1 For Institutional Market Participants
- Liquidity assessment: The survey provides a reliable benchmark for global FX liquidity, helping banks and asset managers calibrate execution strategies and manage counterparty risk.
- Currency exposure analysis: The currency‑share data (e.g., USD dominance, rising CNY and CHF shares) inform portfolio hedging and reserve management decisions.
- Market structure monitoring: The breakdown by instrument and counterparty type helps institutions track shifts in trading behaviour (e.g., the surge in outright forwards and options).
4.2 For Retail Forex Traders
- Context for volatility: The 2025 survey was conducted during a period of high volatility following US tariff announcements. Understanding that turnover surged partly due to such events helps traders appreciate that volume spikes can be event‑driven and may not persist.
- Broker selection: Knowing which currencies and instruments are most liquid can guide traders toward instruments with tighter spreads and lower slippage.
- Risk awareness: The survey highlights the dominance of inter‑dealer and institutional trading—retail flow is a small fraction of total volume, meaning retail traders are price‑takers, not price‑makers.
5. Evaluation: Strengths and Limitations
| Aspect | Strengths | Limitations / Risks |
|---|---|---|
| Data quality | Standardised methodology across 52 jurisdictions; data validated by central banks; “net‑net” adjustment removes double‑counting. | Data are preliminary until final release; revisions can occur. Some smaller jurisdictions may have less granular reporting. |
| Coverage | Most comprehensive FX market snapshot; includes all major instruments and currencies; historical series back to 1986. | OTC market is decentralised; survey relies on voluntary dealer reporting; some activities (e.g., crypto‑FX) may be underrepresented. |
| Timeliness | Preliminary results published ~5 months after reference period; final data with analysis in December. | Data are a snapshot of one month (April); they do not capture intra‑year or intra‑day dynamics. |
| Practical utility | Essential for central banks, policy makers, and institutional investors; provides a trusted benchmark for market size and structure. | Retail traders may find the aggregated data too broad for short‑term trading decisions; it is a macro tool, not a trading signal. |
Key takeaway: The BIS survey is the gold standard for understanding global FX market structure, but it should be used alongside more frequent data sources (e.g., CLS settlement data, regional FX committee surveys) for real‑time decision‑making.
6. Common Misconceptions
❌ Misconception 1: “$9.6 trillion daily turnover means retail traders can easily profit.”
Reality: The vast majority of this volume is inter‑dealer and institutional. Retail flow is a tiny fraction. High turnover does not guarantee profitability; it can also mean higher volatility and wider spreads during news events.
❌ Misconception 2: “The survey data are real‑time and can be used for entry/exit signals.”
Reality: The survey is a retrospective snapshot of April 2025. It does not provide live prices or order flow. Using it for short‑term trading would be like using a yearly weather report to decide what to wear today.
❌ Misconception 3: “A rising currency share means that currency will appreciate.”
Reality: Turnover share reflects trading activity, not direction. A currency can be heavily traded while depreciating (e.g., during a flight to safety or carry trade unwinding).
❌ Misconception 4: “All brokers provide the same liquidity as the BIS survey suggests.”
Reality: Retail brokers aggregate liquidity from a subset of wholesale providers. Their spreads, execution speed, and available instruments vary widely. Always check the broker’s execution model (STP, ECN, or market maker) and regulatory status.
7. Risk Controls & Due Diligence
7.1 Regulatory Due Diligence Checklist
- Verify broker registration – Check the broker’s license with the relevant authority (e.g., CFTC in the US, FCA in the UK, ASIC in Australia). Use the NFA BASIC system to research firms and individuals.
- Read the risk disclosure – Brokers must provide a clear written risk disclosure before you open an account. Understand margin requirements, stop‑out levels, and negative balance protection.
- Beware of “clone” platforms – Fraudsters often mimic regulated brokers. Always type the broker’s URL manually and verify contact details through the regulator’s official website.
- Check for disciplinary history – Use NFA BASIC, CFTC SmartCheck, or FINRA’s BrokerCheck to see if the firm or its principals have faced regulatory actions.
- Understand execution model – STP/ECN brokers pass orders to liquidity providers; market makers may trade against you. Each has different cost structures and slippage risks.
- Test with a demo account – Before depositing real funds, use a demo to evaluate spreads, execution speed, and platform stability during volatile periods.
7.2 Hidden Traps for Retail Traders
- Widening spreads during news: Even if the broker advertises low spreads, these can widen significantly during major economic releases or tariff announcements—exactly when you might want to trade.
- “Abnormal trading” clauses: Some brokers reserve the right to deny withdrawals if they deem your trading style (e.g., scalping, arbitrage) as “abnormal.” Read the terms of business carefully.
- Bonus/ promotion traps: High‑value deposit bonuses often come with volume‑based withdrawal conditions. Calculate the required turnover before accepting any bonus.
- PAMM/MAM black‑box risks: If you follow a signal provider or invest in a managed account, you have no control over the underlying trades. The manager may use high leverage or trade illiquid instruments.
⚠️ RETAIL FOREX & HIGH‑LEVERAGE RISK WARNING
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can amplify both profits and losses. You could lose all of your deposited funds. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
The CFTC and NFA warn that off‑exchange forex trading by retail investors is at best extremely risky, and at worst, outright fraud. Always conduct thorough due diligence and consider seeking independent financial advice.
Sources: CFTC Customer Advisory “Eight Things You Should Know Before Trading Forex”; NFA “Trading Forex: What Investors Need to Know”.
7.3 A Practical Risk‑Management Checklist
- Set a maximum risk per trade (e.g., 1‑2% of account equity).
- Use stop‑loss orders on every position; consider guaranteed stops (if offered) to protect against slippage.
- Monitor margin level regularly; avoid over‑leveraging.
- Keep a trading journal to review your decisions and outcomes.
- Stay informed about economic calendars and central bank announcements.
- Periodically withdraw profits to lock in gains.