Bis Triennial Survey April 2025 Forex Turnover Guide, Covering Meaning, Use Cases, Evaluation, and Risks

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Triennial Central Bank Survey is the most comprehensive source of data on the global foreign exchange (forex) and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets. This guide explains the meaning of the April 2025 survey, how its turnover data is used by different market participants, how to evaluate the findings, and the limitations and risks associated with interpreting this authoritative dataset.

📜 1. Meaning of the BIS Triennial Survey

The BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey is a global, standardised data collection exercise conducted every three years under the auspices of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). It measures the size and structure of the foreign exchange and OTC interest rate derivatives markets. The survey covers activity in April of the survey year — in this case, April 2025.

The survey collects turnover data from central banks and other official agencies in approximately 50 jurisdictions, covering more than 1,200 financial institutions — including commercial banks, investment banks, and other dealers. The data are aggregated to produce global totals by currency, instrument, maturity, and counterparty type. The results are considered the most authoritative benchmark for the size of the forex market.

ⓘ Source: The BIS Triennial Survey is the primary source for central banks, regulators, and market participants to gauge market size and evolution. The survey methodology and historical data are publicly available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). Always consult the official BIS release for final and validated numbers.

2. How the Survey Is Conducted

The survey process involves multiple stages:

Data Collection

Participating central banks collect daily turnover data from banks and other financial institutions in their jurisdictions for the entire month of April. The data are broken down by currency pairs, instruments (spot, forwards, swaps, options, etc.), and counterparty types (banks, non-bank financial institutions, non-financial corporates, etc.).

Standardisation and Aggregation

Central banks submit standardised data to the BIS, which aggregates the figures into global totals. The BIS applies rigorous quality checks to ensure comparability across countries.

Publication

The BIS publishes a preliminary statistical release about 8–10 months after the survey period (typically early in the following year). A more detailed report, including breakdowns by currency and instrument, is released later. For the April 2025 survey, the preliminary results were published in early 2026.

The survey provides average daily turnover (ADT) figures, which are the most widely cited metrics. These represent the total notional value of trades executed on a typical business day during April.

📊 3. Use Cases: Who Uses the Data and Why

🌍 Central Banks and Regulators

Monitor market size, liquidity, and structural changes to inform monetary policy, financial stability assessments, and regulatory oversight. The data help identify concentrations and potential systemic risks.

📈 Financial Institutions

Banks and investment firms use the data for strategic planning, assessing market share, identifying growth areas (e.g., emerging market currencies), and evaluating the competitive landscape.

📚 Institutional Investors

Pension funds, hedge funds, and asset managers use the data to gauge market liquidity and the relative importance of different currency pairs for allocation and hedging decisions.

📚 Academics and Researchers

Study market microstructure, global capital flows, and the impact of regulation and technology on market efficiency.

💰 Retail Traders

While not directly actionable for trading, the survey helps retail traders understand the overall size and trends in the market, such as the growing role of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) or the dominance of the USD.

📈 Corporations

Multinational companies use the data to assess currency liquidity and hedging costs when managing foreign exchange risk.

ⓘ Insight: The Federal Reserve and other central banks often reference the Triennial Survey in their financial stability reports. The data also inform the Bank of England's quarterly exchange rate and market turnover reports. Always cross-check specific figures with the official BIS publication.

📈 4. Key Findings from Recent Surveys

While the final April 2025 data are published by the BIS, analysts have observed persistent trends:

For the April 2025 survey, preliminary estimates from market observers suggested average daily turnover may have surpassed $8 trillion, up from $7.5 trillion in 2022, driven by higher volatility, increased institutional activity, and post-pandemic structural shifts.

ⓘ Note: These are market expectations and preliminary projections. The only authoritative figures are those published by the BIS. Always verify current data directly on the BIS website or through official central bank releases.

🔎 5. How to Evaluate the Survey Data

When using the BIS Triennial Survey data, consider the following evaluation criteria:

📊 6. Comparison of Turnover by Currency and Instrument

Currency Pair / Instrument 2022 Share (%) 2025 Estimated Share (%) Key Drivers
EUR/USD ~23% ~22% Largest pair, high liquidity, stable share
USD/JPY ~13% ~13% Safe-haven demand, yield differentials
GBP/USD ~10% ~9% Brexit effects, UK rate outlook
USD/CNY (RMB) ~7% ~9% (est.) Growing RMB internationalisation, trade flows
Spot vs. Swaps Spot ~29%, Swaps ~52% Spot ~27%, Swaps ~53% Swaps dominate for hedging and positioning
Total Average Daily Turnover $7.5 trillion ~$8.2 trillion (est.) Volatility, institutional participation

* Estimates based on market consensus and preliminary BIS hints; final data subject to official release.

7. Checklist for Using Survey Data

When consulting the BIS Triennial Survey, use this checklist to ensure accurate and appropriate use:

📝 8. Practical Scenario

Scenario: A large UK-based asset manager is considering increasing its allocation to emerging market bonds. Before deciding, the firm wants to understand the liquidity of the underlying currencies, particularly the Korean won (KRW) and Indian rupee (INR).

Approach: The research team reviews the April 2025 BIS Triennial Survey to analyse the turnover of KRW and INR in the global forex market. They compare the 2025 figures with those from 2022 to see the growth trajectory. They note that while both currencies have grown, their share remains small (~2-3% each) compared to majors, indicating lower liquidity and potentially higher transaction costs. They also check the breakdown by instrument to see the predominance of swaps over spot, which may affect execution.

Outcome: Based on the BIS data, the asset manager decides to allocate a modest portion to EM bonds, but with a hedging strategy that accounts for the lower liquidity. They also use the data to negotiate better execution terms with their prime brokers.

Note: This is an illustrative scenario. Actual investment decisions should be based on comprehensive analysis, including current market conditions, not solely on BIS data.

9. Common Mistakes

⚠ Avoid These Common Errors

  • Treating aggregate turnover as a trading signal: The survey provides macro-level data, not short-term buy/sell signals.
  • Ignoring the survey's methodology changes: Changes in reporting coverage or instrument classification can affect year-over-year comparability.
  • Assuming turnover equals profitability: High turnover does not imply that market participants are profitable; it simply reflects transaction volume.
  • Overlooking the dominance of a few dealers: The survey aggregates across thousands of institutions, but the market is highly concentrated — a small number of top-tier banks account for the majority of turnover.
  • Using the data to estimate spreads or execution costs: The BIS survey does not provide information on bid-ask spreads or other transaction costs. The CFTC and NFA caution that retail traders should not use aggregate turnover data for such purposes.
  • Not checking the currency denomination: All turnover is expressed in USD terms; exchange rate fluctuations can distort growth figures when comparing across years.
  • Taking preliminary estimates as final: Preliminary figures may be revised; always use the final published numbers.
  • Failing to contextualise with market conditions: The April 2025 data reflect conditions specific to that month, which may not be representative of the whole year (e.g., seasonal factors, special events).

10. Risk Warning and Limitations

⚠ Important Risk Warning

The BIS Triennial Survey is a comprehensive statistical exercise, but it has inherent limitations and should not be used as a basis for trading decisions without additional context.

  • Not a real-time indicator: The data reflect April 2025 and are published with a lag. Currency markets are dynamic; conditions may have changed significantly.
  • Aggregation bias: The global figures mask significant regional variation and concentration among a few institutions. For retail traders, the experience of trading with a particular broker may not reflect the aggregate picture.
  • No cost data: The survey does not include spreads, commissions, or other transaction costs. These are critical for evaluating trading viability.
  • Counterparty risk not addressed: The survey does not differentiate between trades with different counterparty types, which carry different credit risks.
  • Potential for misinterpretation: Many users overestimate the relevance of aggregate turnover to their own trading. The CFTC and NFA regularly warn that retail forex traders should not rely on such macro data for individual trade decisions.
  • Methodological changes: The BIS may adjust its methodology, affecting comparability with previous surveys. Always read the methodological notes.

Risk controls:

  • Cross-check BIS data with other sources (e.g., central bank reports, market surveillance data).
  • Use the data for long-term trend analysis rather than short-term predictions.
  • Combine survey data with granular data from your broker, exchange, or other providers when evaluating execution.
  • Stay informed of changes in the BIS methodology and adjust your interpretation accordingly.
  • Refer to the NFA BASIC and CFTC resources for regulatory context on retail forex trading, which are separate from the BIS survey.
  • Always consult the official BIS publication and accompanying analysis for the most accurate and nuanced interpretation.

This information is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The BIS Triennial Survey is a valuable reference, but trading decisions should be based on comprehensive analysis, including current market conditions, personal risk tolerance, and professional advice. Always verify current rules, fees, spreads, and broker availability with the relevant authority or provider.

ⓘ Source: The BIS Triennial Survey methodology and historical data are available at www.bis.org. The CFTC's "Eight Things You Should Know Before Trading Forex" and the NFA's "Forex Fraud and Other Forms of Financial Fraud" provide additional guidance on retail forex risks. The Federal Reserve also publishes research using BIS data in its financial stability reports.

11. Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the BIS Triennial Survey?

The BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey is a comprehensive global survey of foreign exchange and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets conducted every three years by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). It provides authoritative data on turnover, market structure, and trends across jurisdictions, currencies, and instrument types.

Q: When was the April 2025 survey conducted and what does it cover?

The April 2025 Triennial Survey was conducted during the month of April 2025 (covering the full month) and includes data on turnover in the global foreign exchange market and OTC interest rate derivatives. It collects data from central banks and other official sources in over 50 jurisdictions, covering approximately 1,200 financial institutions.

Q: What is the expected turnover for April 2025?

The BIS published the preliminary results in early 2026. However, based on previous trends (2022 survey showed $7.5 trillion average daily turnover), analysts projected a further increase in 2025, possibly exceeding $8 trillion, driven by rising volatility, increased institutional participation, and growth in emerging market currencies. The final official figures are released by BIS and should be checked directly.

Q: Who uses the BIS Triennial Survey data?

The data is used by central banks for monetary policy and financial stability monitoring, by financial institutions for strategic planning and risk management, by institutional investors for portfolio allocation, by regulators for market surveillance, and by academics for research. Retail traders also consult it to gauge market liquidity and the relative importance of different currency pairs.

Q: What are the key risks associated with interpreting the BIS survey?

Risks include misinterpreting turnover as a measure of profitability or liquidity for retail trading, relying on aggregated data that may not reflect local or high-frequency conditions, overlooking the dominance of a few large dealers (concentration risk), and assuming that past trends will continue. The CFTC and NFA caution that retail traders should not use aggregate turnover data as a trading signal.

Q: How does the BIS survey impact retail forex traders?

Retail traders use the survey to understand the overall market size, the relative importance of major vs. emerging market currencies, and the growth of electronic trading. However, the survey does not provide information on spreads, execution quality, or retail participation. The Federal Reserve advises that retail traders should use data from their broker and regulatory authorities for trading decisions, not aggregate BIS data.

Q: Where can I find the official results of the April 2025 BIS Survey?

The official results are published on the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) website (www.bis.org). The BIS releases a detailed statistical release with turnover data by currency, country, instrument, and counterparty. Central banks often provide national breakdowns. Always refer to the official source for accurate and final data.

Q: What are the main trends highlighted by the BIS Triennial Survey in recent years?

Recent surveys have shown: the continued dominance of the US dollar (about 88% of trades involve USD), rising share of emerging market currencies (RMB, KRW, INR, BRL), growth in electronic and algorithmic trading, and increased participation from non-bank financial institutions (hedge funds, pension funds). The April 2025 survey is expected to confirm these trends while possibly showing a modest shift towards a more fragmented market.